April 5, 2012 at UNCC Center City Campus

The theme of the day was innovation and collaboration. The first presentation was facilitated by Mitchell Silver, Chief Planning and Economic Development Officer for the city of Raleigh.

Mr. Silver laid the foundation for the resilient communities discussion as he walked the audience through the history of urbanization. He discussed the importance of people and communities across regions working together in order to grow together. He focused on what attributes make a community resilient, specifically how a community plans for trends, emerging issues and challenges. He indicated that sustainability has a “shelf life” and the importance of long-term planning as it relates to urbanization and our current environment. Examples were provided through a list of emerging trends. While these were presented as future trends that would impact our community, different trends have cycled through communities in different forms throughout history and have proved their impact urbanization.

The first trend discussed relates to the aging population as current day life expectancy is increasing and therefore the number of Americans who are 65 and older has grown. Other trends included changes in lifestyles of individuals, such as the rise in unwed mothers, the increase in the average age that individuals are getting married and moving into single family households and a decline in population of rural counties in the United States as younger generations continue to move to more “urban” areas.

Mr. Silver discussed the importance of planning for the “implications” that these emerging trends will have on our communities. For example, as the population continues to age, more and more seniors will be looking to relocate to areas where public transportation is available and communities that allow these individuals to live off of a fixed income. Changes in household composition imply that there will be a lower demand in the future for large homes in suburban areas. The younger generation is focused on smaller homes and urban lifestyle in areas that provide mixed use space. Mr. Silver cited planning for these trends as key to maintaining a resilient community in that strategic planning adds value to the community as it allows for the community to prepare for these emerging trends and challenges.

Mr. Silver’s presentation was followed by a panel discussion that included the following participants:

· Clay Grubb, Grubb Properties
· David Howard, City of Charlotte
· Professor Deb Ryan, UNCC
· Terry Shook, Shook Kelley
· Nathan Taft, Jonathan Rose Companies

After introductions, the panelists were posed with several questions related to emerging trends and the impact of these trends and other challenges on communities.

Professor Deb Ryan discussed the implications of aging and public health on community design and resiliency. David Howard addressed his views on the Charlotte community and its ability to “know what is urgent before it is urgent,” in other words, plan for the emerging trends and challenges that will affect our community. Mr. Howard indicated the challenges that Charlotte faces in this regard, as do other communities, in that many individuals that represent younger generations promote development and are interested in having choices when it comes to places to live, yet these individuals are not voting and thus not driving many of the decisions that are made in the community.

Clay Grubb commented on his experience with being faced with “No’s” and how to turn a “No” into “Yes.” He cited his experience with running into “No’s” as it relates to the Glenn Lennox development in Chapel Hill. He indicated that it comes down to educating the community so that individuals can achieve a mentality that it is about the community as a whole and not about buildings. Terry Shook was then asked to provide feedback on how zoning and other codes give the impression that building options in a community are limited or restricted. He indicated that these codes can provide just the opposite in that communities where urban developers work with property developers in zoning and other regulatory discussions, often times, property owners and developers are able to incorporate investment strategies and generate a higher return on their investment. Nathan Taft was asked to comment on the criteria for a sustainable investment. He indicated that there is a “sweet spot” when revitalization of cities can come together from an environmental, economic, and social perspective. Mr. Taft discussed the importance of thinking on a more macro scale and not just on a community level.

The final speaker of the morning was Tom Murphy, ULI Chair for Urban Development. Mr. Murphy’s presentation was entitled “What’s Next in Real Estate in the New Economy?” Mr. Murphy discussed “game changers” as it relates to the future of real estate, including concepts such as globalization, technology, and demographics. From a globalization perspective, he spoke specifically of access to the Panama Canal traffic, as an example to demonstrate how America continues to focus on the big picture and how this focus can impact a single community. He discussed advances in technology and a move from historical trends of commerce that were focused on location in that local communities can now have a competitive advantage when they foster communities that have the intellectual ability to succeed. Specifically, he indicated the importance of education and research facilities in a community, as communities with higher educated individuals drive a better educated workforce and will provide these communities the opportunity to enhance urban growth.

Finally, he discussed demographics and the changes in the real estate market that are driven by demographics. In our current economy, fewer consumers are looking to purchase homes as these purchases are considered to be a riskier investment. Mr. Murphy’s presentation highlighted the opportunities that communities have to work together and invest in education, research, and innovation to create an environment that serves to enhance the overall marketability of the region.

Note: “What’s Next: Real Estate in the New Economy” is a special publication celebrating ULI’s 75th birthday celebration. Copies of this book are available here.

By Lauren Spegal, an audit manager with Grant Thornton.  She has been with GT since her start in public accounting eight years ago. Spegal’s focus is in the Construction, Real Estate, and Hospitality industry group.